Kalshi: the Betting App that's Helping to Destroy Democracy
Download MP3Kalshi: is it "the first federally regulated prediction market," or just a shittier FanDuel? Join me and friend-of-the-pod Jeff Bonhag to learn:
- What modern science has in common with rolling fox knuckles
- How Kalshi DOSed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- Why Donald Trump Jr is so interested in making prediction markets a thing
References:
- https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/fbd446de-a7e3-11f0-8d81-6380135dcd93
- https://businesslawreview.uchicago.edu/print-archive/event-contracts-are-step-too-far-derivatives-regulation
- https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article-abstract/281/1784/20133305/77153/Decision-accuracy-in-complex-environments-is-often
- https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=70788
- https://epicwins.io/2025/10/12/kalshi-raises-300m-and-expands-to-over-140-countries/
- https://frontofficesports.com/kalshi-hit-with-nationwide-class-action-over-illegal-sports-betting/
- https://gamblingharm.org/kalshi-college-ambassadors-program/
- https://german.yale.edu/sites/default/files/hayek_-_the_use_of_knowledge_in_society.pdf
- https://mickbransfield.com/2025/08/11/summary-of-legal-actions-involving-kalshis-sports-event-contracts/
- https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-cnn-prediction-market-partnership
- https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/kalshi-and-tareks-not-so-excellent-pr-adventure
- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/empire/id1554930038?i=1000731608313
- https://readwrite.com/kalshi-sued-massachusetts-illegal-sports-gambling/
- https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2016/07/why-political-betting-markets-are-failing.html
- https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cadc.41256/gov.uscourts.cadc.41256.1208669739.0.pdf
- https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/11/kalshi-sues-cftc-over-election-betting-bid-denial-00124658
- https://time.com/7095708/financial-scam-political-prediction-election/
- https://users.wfu.edu/strumpks/papers/JEP_2004.pdf
- https://web.stanford.edu/~csimoiu/doc/wisdom-of-crowds.pdf
- https://www.axios.com/2024/04/10/us-legal-betting-prediction-market-events-kalshi
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-05-26/kalshi-s-stock-market-of-the-world-let-s-you-bet-on-anything https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/kalshi-s-top-lawyer-quits-to-become-leader-of-doge-team-at-sec https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-20/kalshi-pulls-announcement-of-xai-tie-up-hours-after-touting-deal
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/hedge-funds-are-wooed-by-startup-to-bet-millions-on-real-events https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/29/this-new-exchange-lets-investors-vote-yes-or-no-on-major-events-to-hedge-their-portfolios.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/09/kalshi-expands-election-betting-options-cftc-complains.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/13/kalshi-names-donald-trump-jr-as-strategic-advisor-to-prediction-market-firm.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/04/cnbc-and-kalshi-strike-exclusive-partnership.html
- https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/12/04/on-kalshi-there-is-no-house-anybody-can-win-says-ceo-tarek-mansour.html
- https://www.covers.com/industry/kalshi-faces-class-action-over-alleged-unlicensed-sports-betting-nov-28-2025
- https://www.eesi.org/articles/view/data-centers-and-water-consumption
- https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/02/19/will-prediction-markets-live-up-to-the-hype
- https://www.fastcompany.com/91399289/kalshi-prediction-markets-sports-gambling
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciapark/2025/12/02/how-kalshis-luana-lopes-lara-cofounder-went-from-professional-ballerina-to-worlds-youngest-self-made-woman-billionaire/
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2021/12/01/from-fintechs-crypto-top-founders-to-wall-streets-best-dealmakers-30-under-30-finance-2022/
- https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7399150924876763136/
- https://www.mass.gov/doc/kalshi-final-filed-complaint/download
- https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/02/election-betting-markets-00182165
- https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1ggq905/hi_reddit_my_name_is_tarek_mansour_and_im_the/
- https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL1N3AY1X7/
- https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/11/political-betting-elections-forecasting-future/672113/ https://www.theinformation.com/articles/could-gambling-on-elections-be-bigger-than-sports-betting-a-trading-startup-shoots-its-shot https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/are-you-ready-to-bet-on-u-s-elections-a-judges-ruling-opens-the-door-556abc73
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qm33FhRJVDg
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uv6KLbkvua8
- https://x.com/luanalopeslara/status/1994418071629336978/photo/1
